Today sees the publication of our 29th British Social Attitudes report. Since 1983 – spanning three recessions and seven elections – we’ve been tracking people’s social, political and moral attitudes. This year’s report is our first opportunity to assess the public’s mood as we head into the mid-term of the coalition, and after several years of economic difficulties. We’ll be blogging on a wide range of issues from the report over the next few days.I’m focusing on public spending, immigration and welfare today. These areas offer a mixed bag for the Government and give some clues on the likely battleground for the next general election.
With most of the planned spending cuts still to bite, a striking finding is that after a decade of declining support for more public spending, we’re seeing the first signs of a reversal in this trend. 36% now want more spending – even if it means higher taxes – a rise of 5 points year on year. This is not huge, and most people want spending to remain the same, but the fact that the trend is changing direction is significant – and we’d expect to see it rise further in the coming years.
The challenge for government, then, will be to convince the public that cuts won’t necessarily mean poorer performance in key public services. But there are already worrying signs in terms of the NHS: from an all-time high at the end of the Labour government, we found the first fall in NHS satisfaction for more than a decade. The 12 percentage point drop (to 58%) is the biggest annual fall since the mid 80s. This is likely to reflect some concern about what’s ahead.
On immigration, Ministers might at first sight take more comfort in the public’s attitudes, where rhetoric matches the public mood. There remains deep concern about the level of immigration generally. Around half also think it has a negative impact on Britain’s economy and cultural life and these figures have risen - particularly among economically vulnerable groups. But it’s not that simple, and digging beneath the headlines, the public’s views are much more nuanced: there is much greater support for highly skilled and qualified migrants coming to Britain than unskilled labourers, irrespective of where the migrants come from.
The power of BSA is that we’re able to place the public’s attitudes today in their wider historical context. On welfare, the difference between the current recession and previous recessions is marked. During the early-1990s, there was an increase in concern that benefit levels were too low. Fast forward to now – and we’re still seeing attitudes toughen towards those on welfare benefits. The recession has even seen attitudes harden towards people on disability benefits – although the big question is whether the Paralympics will see a change in attitudes from now on.
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