Yesterday I was one of four speakers addressing an audience at the Resolution Foundation on the issue of whether 7 May 2015 was going to be the “Living Standards Election”.
We were asked to respond to some new
YouGov polling, presented by the always excellent Peter Kellner. YouGov’s research suggested, broadly, that the British public think they are worse off now they were in 2010 and that they expect to be even worse off in 2015. It also suggested that the public were pretty uncertain about whether any of the political parties would be able to do anything about it, at least in the short term.
I was invited, in the words of Newsnight’s Political Editor Allegra Stratton (also at the event), to tell the story of British living standards over time and, as is so often the case, I was able to turn to our
British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey.
For almost 30 years BSA has asked people how well off they think they are, revealing that surprisingly few people see themselves as struggling even in the darkest economic times.
The percentage admitting to struggling is recession related, but has never risen beyond 29% in the last 30 years, a figure recorded in 1984
when unemployment hit 11.9%, its highest level since records began in 1971.
Even well into the current recession, we aren’t seeing levels back up to previous recessions – most recent figures have been hovering around 20%. (The figure has never fallen below 13%).
What might explain this puzzling finding?
Our first hypothesis is that people believe there are lots of people worse off than themselves, and this tempers their assessment. If you ask people what shape society is (in terms of income distribution), they tend to think it is triangle shaped, with very few people at the top, and lots towards the bottom. But paradoxically, most people place themselves in the middle. So if many think others are worse off than themselves, this might explain why they are reluctant to describe themselves as struggling, even in tough times. Our second hypothesis is that while people’s living standards have fallen and they have noticed it, they might actually be more worried about something else. It is instructive to look back at issues worrying the public – and for this I draw on
IPSOS Mori’s tracker.
-Back in the 1970s and early 1980s, people were most worried about prices. Inflation of course was rampant, over 20% at some points during 1980.
-In the 80s and into the mid 90s (under Thatcher and Major), people worried most about unemployment.
-For the first part of Tony Blair’s tenure, people worried about the NHS. Later, their concerns turned to immigration/race relations.
But since 2008 concerns have squarely been about the economy. So perhaps, against our intuition, it isn’t the actual pound in our pockets that concerns quite as much as the competence of the government on the economy. A point reflected by Times Columnist Danny Finkelstein who reminded us that it is one thing to have a strategy to turn the economy around, it is quite another to get the public to believe you will deliver on it.
If this is the case, the biggest impact in terms of a living standards election might be on turnout, since voters might not trust any of the parties to sort out the difficulties.
Or, perhaps, the question might tell us something about esteem and identity. People might react against the very term “struggling”, even if they are having to budget very carefully, tighten their belts, and are worse off than they were. Politicians are quick to invent terms that they think will resonate with whom they are trying to appeal to: alarm clock Britain, something for something, strivers and skivers, twitching curtains….strugglers might be another term that people aren’t keen to identify with, even if they are.
There isn’t one catch-all policy on living standards.
There is another reason why it might be hard to put living standards at the heart of the election debate. The YouGov data clearly shows the difficulty of making capital out of individual circumstances, since there are very different concerns.
For older people the issue might be petrol. Younger people can’t afford a car - so it’s housing. And British Social Attitudes finds one group that is really struggling - single parents – but this group doesn’t determine elections.
In contrast of course, there are some issues that resonate across the spectrum. The NHS being one example, and on this, there have been warning signs for the coalition as satisfaction has fallen and not yet recovered.
On one level, it is axiomatic that people’s own experiences will be relevant to any election debate. But perhaps not in a straightforward way: (a) perceived (in)competence on the overall economy might keep people away from the polling stations (b) politicians should think carefully about making assumptions and the language they use (c) people might not want to be reminded how badly off they are. This might attack their self esteem.

Will living standards decide the next election?